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Moreover, if crises are preceded by such developments, output declines more during the subsequent recession.In addition, I show that asset booms explain the relation between income inequality and financial crises in the data.Sustained periods when the real interest rate remains below the central bank's estimate of r-star can induce the agent to place a substantially higher weight on the deflation forecast rules, causing the deflation equilibrium to occasionally become fully realized.

Our consumption data come from household-level retail purchases in Nielsen and auto purchases from Equifax credit balances.We estimate that a

Our consumption data come from household-level retail purchases in Nielsen and auto purchases from Equifax credit balances.

We estimate that a $1 increase in county-level government spending increases consumer spending by $0.18.

We translate the regional consumption responses to an aggregate fiscal multiplier using a multi-region, New Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets.

In contrast, this paper considers changes originating in the real economy as drivers of financial instability.

Based on long-run historical data for advanced economies, I find that rising top income inequality and low productivity growth are robust predictors of crises – even outperforming wellknown early-warning indicators such as credit growth.

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Our consumption data come from household-level retail purchases in Nielsen and auto purchases from Equifax credit balances.We estimate that a $1 increase in county-level government spending increases consumer spending by $0.18.We translate the regional consumption responses to an aggregate fiscal multiplier using a multi-region, New Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets.In contrast, this paper considers changes originating in the real economy as drivers of financial instability.Based on long-run historical data for advanced economies, I find that rising top income inequality and low productivity growth are robust predictors of crises – even outperforming wellknown early-warning indicators such as credit growth.

increase in county-level government spending increases consumer spending by [[

Our consumption data come from household-level retail purchases in Nielsen and auto purchases from Equifax credit balances.

We estimate that a $1 increase in county-level government spending increases consumer spending by $0.18.

We translate the regional consumption responses to an aggregate fiscal multiplier using a multi-region, New Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets.

In contrast, this paper considers changes originating in the real economy as drivers of financial instability.

Based on long-run historical data for advanced economies, I find that rising top income inequality and low productivity growth are robust predictors of crises – even outperforming wellknown early-warning indicators such as credit growth.

||

Our consumption data come from household-level retail purchases in Nielsen and auto purchases from Equifax credit balances.We estimate that a $1 increase in county-level government spending increases consumer spending by $0.18.We translate the regional consumption responses to an aggregate fiscal multiplier using a multi-region, New Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets.In contrast, this paper considers changes originating in the real economy as drivers of financial instability.Based on long-run historical data for advanced economies, I find that rising top income inequality and low productivity growth are robust predictors of crises – even outperforming wellknown early-warning indicators such as credit growth.

]].18.We translate the regional consumption responses to an aggregate fiscal multiplier using a multi-region, New Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets.In contrast, this paper considers changes originating in the real economy as drivers of financial instability.Based on long-run historical data for advanced economies, I find that rising top income inequality and low productivity growth are robust predictors of crises – even outperforming wellknown early-warning indicators such as credit growth.

In model simulations, raising the central bank's inflation target to 4% from 2% can reduce, but not eliminate, the endogenous switches to the deflation equilibrium.

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